Animal Disease Forecasting and Surveillance

Pashu Sandesh, 07^th July 2018

Barkha Sharma, S.Parul, Raghvendra Mishra, Udit Jain

In the era of globalization when it takes just a few hours to travel across the globe, unrestricted movement of people, animals, plants, food and feed, prompt and timely recognition and reporting of any disease becomes the foremost priority. Early recognition can enable coordinated and rapid responses to an outbreak, preventing catastrophic morbidity and mortality. Additionally, early detection can alleviate grave economic hardship brought upon by pandemics and emerging diseases. Other contributing factors to the risk of new pathogens emerging and known pathogens re-emerging include climate change, urbanization, land use changes, and political instability. Outbreaks that begin in the most remote parts of the world now spread swiftly to urban centres in countries far away within no time at all. World has already faced the scenario in the form of SARS in 2002-2003, when originating from South China, the disease was able to spread in almost 32 countries across the globe affecting scores of people before even etiology could be known.

The ability to detect outbreaks early is important to minimize morbidity and mortality through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures. Forecasting” is the monitoring of specific risk parameters helping to predict situations that could lead to the occurrence of a given disease and its subsequent spread. The forecasting of disease helps to predict the course of disease, warn health care workers and adopt control measures to prevent disease outbreaks. Forecasting is process of making future predictions using past and present trends. Animal disease forecasting is a management system used to predict occurrence or spread of disease and suitable methods to study disease using the epidemiological triangle i.e. Pathogen, environment and host.

Objectives of Forecasting:

1. To study modes of transmission and to understand how to prevent spread of epidemic diseases
2. To monitor the effectiveness of disease control campaigns
3. Emergency preparedness & disease management strategies
4. To demonstrate knowledge about the epidemiology of diseases

Early Warning:

Early Warning is the provision of timely and effective response through the recognized institutions that allows inpiduals exposed to hazards to take actions to avoid or reduce risk and prepare for an effective response. Early Warning and Response (EWS) is based on the concept of dealing with a disease epidemic in its early stages is easier and more economical than having to deal with it once it is widespread. The Global Early Warning and Response System for Major Animal Diseases combine the alert and response mechanisms of the different organizations, enhancing the Early Warning and Response capacity for the benefit of the international community. Through sharing of information on disease alerts, unjustified duplication of efforts can be avoided and a coordinated response can be initiated. In case of zoonotic events, alerts of animal outbreaks can provide direct early warning to increase human surveillance so that appropriate response could be undertaken to deal with the situation.

Early warning initiatives

Major international organizations like FAO, OIE and WHO play lead role in developing early warning and response systems to make early reporting of diseases easy so that warning can be given in advance to those who are likely to get affected by the diseases.

World organisation for Animal Health (historical acronym OIE- the Office International des Epizooties) The OIE works to build global surveillance capacity, including funding and technical assistance for countries with inadequate ability to detect and report disease threats. Terrestrial Animal Health Code of the OIE requires veterinary services in participating states to carry out monitoring and surveillance, and to report animal disease outbreaks to the OIE, particularly of listed notifiable diseases. The OIE Performance of Veterinary Services (PVS) tool is designed to enable the evaluation of the capacity of veterinary services to meet these requirements. Launched in April 2006, World Animal Health Information System and Database (WAHIS and WAHID) are unique global animal health database in the field of animal health information which offers all available data on animal diseases including zoonoses. OIE will continue to work towards promoting transparency of the world-wide animal health status as per its mission through its Animal Health Information System on designing strategies and guidelines to control major animal diseases including zoonoses and strengthening veterinary services

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation)

FAO was established on 16 October 1945, Canada then transferred to Rome. Achieving food security is its main goal. It has developed software like Trans boundary Animal Disease Information System (TAD info), Trans boundary Animal Diseases Simulator (TAD simulator) and Good Emergency Management Practice (GEMP) to help in achieving its goals. FAO’s EWS EMPRES Global Animal Disease Information System (EMPRES i) is a web based application to support veterinary services by facilitating global and regional disease information at national, regional and global level. FAO continues to promote national and regional disease surveillance and monitoring systems, the development of contingency plans, good emergency management practices and technology transfer.

World Health Organisation

WHO was established on 7 April 1948, located at Geneva, Switzerland concerned with international public health. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) examine and studies diseases evaluate the risks and improve international capability to deal with them. It systematically gathers official reports and rumours of suspected outbreaks from a wide range of formal and informal sources like ministries of health, national institutes of public health, WHO Regional and Country offices, WHO collaborating centres, civilian and military laboratories, academic institutes, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). WHO offers assistance to affected countries in the form of technical advice, supplies and by mounting coordinated international investigations.

Some Initiatives

1. ProMED –mail: Founded in 1994, ProMED is among the first and the largest publicly available electronic, internet based emerging diseases and outbreak reporting systems in the world which provides users with up-to-date information concerning infectious disease outbreaks on a global scale. This promotes communication amongst the international infectious disease community, including scientists, physicians, veterinarians, epidemiologists, public health professionals, and others interested in infectious diseases on a global scale.  In 1999, ProMED became a program of the International Society for Infectious Diseases. As of 2016, ProMED has more than 75,000 subscribers in over 185 countries.
2. Global early warning and response system (GLEWS)

Global early warning and response system is a joint system by WHO, FAO and OIE with an overall objective to improve the early warning and response capacity to animal disease threats of the three sister organizations (FAO, OIE and WHO) for the benefit of the international community. Well defined GLEWS are available for highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Rift Valley Fever (RVF).

3. The International Food Safety Authorities Network (INFOSAN) is a joint programme between the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO), functioning since 2004 to prevent, prepare and respond to food safety events and emergencies at national and international levels. It contributes to efficient prevention and control of cross border spread of unsafe food.
4. The International Health Regulations (IHR 2005): These regulations serve to prevent, protect against, control and provide a public health response to the international spread of diseases of public health importance in a way necessary to avoid unnecessary interference with international traffic and trade.
5. Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN): It is a multidisciplinary technical collaboration of over 600 technical institutions and networks worldwide, with WHO and CDC being the major stakeholders. Established in 2000 to assist the needy countries in initiating the most appropriate response to public health emergencies of international importance. GOARN provides technical support to the countries in outbreak alert and response situations. It has proved its worth by successfully responding to as many as 120 emergencies in 85 countries including SARS epidemic in Asia in 2003, Ebola in Africa, Nipah in Indian Subcontinent, Cholera, and Influenza etc.
6. The Global Framework for Trans boundary Animal Diseases (GF-TADS): launched by FAO and OIE to provide capacity building and to support strategic regional and national cooperation for the establishment of programmes for the targeted control of certain TADs based on their regional priorities. It contributes to the strengthening of national disease reporting structures and mechanisms to fulfil international animal health monitoring functions effectively. The GLEWS initiative is a major contributor to this Framework.
7. Emergency Centre for Trans boundary Animal Diseases Operations (ECTAD): It was launched by FAO within its EMPRES programme in November 2004, to operate as the corporate centre for the design and delivery of FAO’s services as the Chief Veterinary Officer of the organization. ECTAD’s primary aim is to implement a clear, simple chain of command between AGAH/EMPRES and the field to deal efficiently with the emergency at hand and to ensure an integrated approach of the relevant groups and services involved in the response to Trans boundary animal diseases.

The components of an Early Warning System (EWS):

1. Disease surveillance

2. Developing a model

3. Disease forecasting and prediction

GIS: Geographical information system.

It is a computer based data system for analysis and displaying digital geographical data in vector (Point, lines and polygons) and grid (quadratic cells). These data combined with population data and previous disease can be used for the prediction of diseases.

Applications of GIS

1. Forecast epidemics
2. Identify gaps in immunisations
3. Monitors diseases and interventions
4. Monitors health services nearby.

GPS: is Global Positioning System is satellite based and radio navigation system provides geo location and time information.

Remote sensing is acquisition of information about an object without physically touching it.

These global tools are the powerful and potential system for addressing important veterinary health issues at the International, national and local levels. Spatial analysis capabilities allow users to examine and display health data in new and highly effective ways. Spatial relationships, those based on proximity and relative location, form the core of spatial analysis.

Disease Forecasting In India

In India, the function of surveillance and control of exotic as well as indigenous animal disease is undertaken by the Department of Animal Husbandry under the Ministry of Agriculture (GOI).There is a wide network of 23,303 polyclinics, 27543 veterinary aid centres and 250 disease diagnostic labs and 26 vaccine producing units (19 under government and 7 under private sector) through the country.

Animal Quarantine and Certification Services

There are four quarantine stations at New Delhi, Chennai, Mumbai and Kolkata. These stations also provide export certificates of international standards for livestock and products exported from India.

Disease Diagnostic Referral Laboratories

 These labs are situated at the following cities

1. Pune (Disease Investigation Lab)
2. Kolkata (Institute of Animal Health and Veterinary Biological)
3. Bengaluru (Institute of Animal Health and Veterinary Biological)
4. Jalandhar (Animal Health Institute)

National Level Facilities by the Indian Government

1. 1.       National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC): Established way back in 1909 as Central Malaria Bureau at Kasauli, Himachal Pradesh was renamed as Malaria Institute of India in 1938 and again in 1963 as National Institute for Communicable Diseases and presently as NCDC (name changed on 30^th July, 2009). It mainly functions as provider of training, services and research in the field of communicable diseases and their prevention and control in the country.

2. National Institute of High Security Animal Diseases (NIHSAD), Bhopal

NIHSAD, formerly HSADL was established in 1998 at Bhopal as a containment laboratory of Biosafety level 4 (BSL-4). This was one of the ten such containment laboratories in the world. It has been authorized by the Government to diagnose and suggest suitable control measures for exotic and emerging animal diseases which gain entry into the country through international borders. It is safe for handling high risk (risk group 4) and exotic animal pathogens like HPAI. It generates base line data regarding each disease prevalent in the country. The laboratory has developed recombinant antigen and monoclonal antibody based competitive ELISA kits for the diagnosis of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea and bovine immunodeficiency, first of its kind in the world.

1. 3.       National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Informatics (NIVEDI)

NIVEDI, formerly PD-ADMAS, was established in 1987 by ICAR under 7^th five year plan as an AICRP to develop a system of diseases monitoring and surveillance of economically important livestock diseases in the country, with a view to evolve strategic control measures. It was given an independent institute status on 1^st April, 2000 during IX plan as PD-ADMAS which changed its name to NIVEDI in 2013. Since its conception, PD-ADMAS has played a crucial role in up gradation of animal disease surveillance in India. It has played a major role in Rinderpest eradication and is now targeting other important livestock diseases like PPR, Brucellosis, Swine Flu, Swine Fever, anthrax etc. It has developed an innovative india.admas Epitrak epidemiology software which is a dynamic and interactive livestock disease relational database supported by Geographic Information System (GIS). It has created a national directory of 6.39 lakh villages for critical epidemiological sampling frames. It has envisaged“Vision 2030” to attain freedom from 15 economically important diseases along with focusing on food safety and income security through sustainable livestock health and economics by using tools of epidemiological surveillance (PD ADMAS Vision 2030).

Various Schemes/Projects by the GOI to strengthen Disease Surveillance in India

1. National Animal Disease Referral Expert System (NADRES)

NADRES, a web based dynamic and interactive livestock disease rational database, was a combined outcome of a project on weather based animal disease forecast (WB-ADF) supported by GIS for national level disease forecasting by passive surveillance using the data generated by state animal husbandry and other departments and the ‘Animal Health Information System through Disease Monitoring and Surveillance (AHIS-DMS)’ which generated active surveillance data through village surveys. It was formally launched by NIVEDI in 2000 in X^th Five year plan for national level disease forecasting for the first time in the country. It is devoted especially to forecast 15 major livestock diseases. The disease situation can be predicted two months in advance at district level so that preventive measures can be taken well in time by the concerned authorities. This software addresses the needs of data collection, transmission, retrieval, analysis of critical reporting of disease events as and when they occur and are useful for field veterinarians, administrators, technocrats, research personnel, farmers, veterinary colleges and students.

2. The National Animal Disease Reporting System (NADRS)

It is a system of disease reporting through SMS, email and web based interface. It links block, district and state with a nodal central agency for better monitoring and control of trans-boundary diseases. This programme will enable veterinary authorities to closely monitor, control and eradicate animal diseases, particularly those of a trans-boundary nature. NADRS is being implemented by the Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries (DADF) during 2010-11 through the National Informatics Centre (NIC). Around 143 animal diseases scheduled in the Prevention and Control of Infectious and Contagious Diseases in Animals Act, 2009 are included in this reporting system.

3. Integrated Disease Surveillance Project (IDSP)

The IDSP is a disease surveillance scheme was initiated by the World Bank in November 2004 under Ministry of Health and Family Affairs. The Project was undertaken to meet the WHO Guidelines for South East Asian countries on disease surveillance to track the outbreak of diseases and its potential trans boundary threats. It is one of the major National Health Programme under National Health Mission for all States & UTs with key objective to strengthen/maintain decentralized laboratory based IT enabled disease surveillance system for epidemic prone diseases to monitor disease trends and to detect and respond to outbreaks in early rising phase through trained Rapid Response Team (RRTs). A Central Disease Surveillance Unit and a State Surveillance Unit in each State is set up under the project to collect and analyze relevant data. An early warning system has also been put into place in order to take timely preventive steps.

Conclusion

Prevention and control of diseases worldwide constitute a Global Public Good. Benefits drawn from these activities is considerable for agricultural production and food security and safety, public health, animal welfare, access to markets and rural poverty reduction.Present scenario where a new disease is emerging every 7 months, existing facilities for disease forecasting and surveillance are by and large, inadequate. Human population explosion, encroachment of wildlife habitat, changes in agricultural practices, increased travel and tourism and globalization of trade have helped diseases to widen their horizon at an unprecedented rate. As is evident in case of SARS epidemic (2002-03), where the disease spread from South China to around 32 countries of the world within a span of a few months. Never before has been the need of a worldwide surveillance and forecasting system for diseases become the foremost necessity. All major international organizations like OIE, FAO and WHO have time and again emphasized the importance of timely information of disease outbreaks. They have instituted Early Warning Systems and Disease Information Systems for this purpose. Inspite of all this, at least 17 million people still die annually from infectious diseases. As hotspots for emergence are more than usual, present in the underdeveloped regions of the world with weak surveillance and response capacity, we need to combat the emergence of diseases there also. Enhanced communication, shared technical expertise and resources, up gradation of diagnostic facilities, timely and proper vaccination for all is the key to tackle the problem. A collaborative effort of multiple disciplines to attain optimal health for people, animals and environment is the need of the hour.

Barkha Sharma^#1, S.Parul², Raghvendra Mishra², Udit Jain²

                  1. Dept of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine

                             2. Dept of Veterinary Public Health

 College of Veterinary Sciences and Animal Husbandry

Mathura Veterinary University, Mathura, 281001

# Corresponding author mail: barkha16vet@gmail.com